According to the analysis published last week, millions of acres of US coastal lands will be in the flood zones by the middle of the current century. This may entail huge financial losses for American communities, as developed grounds will be rendered uninhabitable.
The non-profit organization Climate Central conducted a unique study of the rising sea level, which included forecasting the amount of real estate, buildings, and tax revenue that hundreds of waterfront counties would lose when the tides encroach on developed districts. It turned out that by 2050, about 4.3 million acres will be underwater – an area almost the size of Connecticut. The value of the inundated real estate will reach $35 billion.
“Higher flood waters are reaching further inland, flooding properties and buildings that have never flooded before,” researchers from Climate Central write.
The study showed that Louisiana will suffer the most, as 2.4 million acres of its land will be underwater by 2050. 77% of the state’s Terrebonne Parish could be flooded (it currently accommodates 5,700 buildings).
Florida, North Carolina, and Texas also stand to incur considerable losses. For instance, 27% of Dare County on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with real estate worth a total of $875 million is at risk of flooding by 2050. In Monroe County, Florida Keys, 19% of the area could be flooded, with properties worth a total of $700 million.
“By 2050, about 30 counties will lose over 10% of their area,” Don Bain, Senior Advisor at Climate Central, said.
The losses will increase by the year 2100. Researchers from Climate Central focused on 2050 because models of global warming will hardly change significantly over the next few decades. These trends, however, may shift by the end of the century depending on whether global emissions reduce or increase.
The study covered 328 counties in 25 coastal states, including Alaska and Hawaii, and was intended to warn state and local authorities of the threat posed by the climate change. This change will negatively affect tax revenue that currently pays for public schools and municipal services.
A climate resilience expert from the University of Delaware said that if there were no other sources of income in a city except property taxes, and those tax proceedings were diminishing, such a locality was not viable.
Mark Rupp, Adaptation Program Director at the Georgetown Climate Center, declared that the local property tax base will be “washed away” by tidal waves. The authorities will then have to spend the remaining taxes to re-settle residents farther from the coastline and elevate roads above the flood level.
According to Rupp, the report by Climate Central is “a really fantastic piece of work for governments” that need to prepare for the consequences of the climate change and the rising sea level. The report calls for common adaptation strategies, such as moving new development projects farther away from the coastal areas.
The study says that by 2100, about 9 million acres will be underwater – an area almost the size of New Hampshire. 300,000 properties worth a total of $109 billion will be affected by the flooding.